I first want to congratulate the 2008 Beanpot Champion Boston College Eagles men’s hockey team! BC was able to sneak by Harvard in a thrilling 6-5 overtime win that saw freshmen Nick Petrecki score his first two college goals in Monday’s victory. The second of Petrecki’s goals came a little over seven minutes into the overtime period. The victory gave the Eagles their first Beanpot Championship since 2004 and hopefully can serve as a catalyst for the #7 ranked Eagles as they begin to wrap up the regular season and move towards the Hockey East Tournament.
If anyone is stuck on their couch tonight and can’t find anything to watch, I highly recommend tuning into the 2008 Westminster Kennel Club dog show broadcast on USA Network from 8:00 – 11:00 PM. For anyone who has a soft spot for a slobber-mouthed-four-legged friend I promise you will enjoy it. Tonight is the “best in show” portion of the competition which is akin to the gold medal round for those in the K9 world. I watched portions of the opening “best of breed” round last night and you really get to learn a lot about the history behind the different breeds of dog as well as witness each dog’s outright unpredictability.
Today also marks another notable competition—this one in the realm of the two legged—with what is being referred to as the “Potomac Primary.” Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia will be casting their votes for President and Illinois Senator Barack Obama and Arizona Senator John McCain are expected to garner the majority of victories in the 3 Mid-Atlantic States. It would seem Obama is poised to receive the greatest amount of support due to the high number of African American voters who traditionally turn out in the region. As always in this unpredictable 2008 Primary Season, predictions have proven to be about as valuable as the paper printed on them. Not sure how that analogy translates to the internet age but I’ll stick with it.
I will be heading to the TD Banknorth Garden tonight to watch the Boston Bruins take on the Carolina Panthers. It will be my first Bruins game in several years and I’m looking forward to witnessing the action in the heart of the “hub of hockey.” I’m hoping to throw in a little North End dinner before the game to make it an unbeatable one-two-punch.
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Much At Stake for Obama in South Carolina
With the eyes of the political world firmly focused on it, South Carolina is set to hold its Democratic Primary this Saturday. South Carolina, combining with the January 29 Florida Primary, will likely serve as the one-two punch that will leave the Democratic field ready for what is now being referred to as “Super Duper Tuesday” on February 5 where over 50% of the party’s delegates will be selected. And while February 5 is being thought by most as the deciding day for Democrats, the results from South Carolina will go a long way in shaping the momentum that Democrats carry with them going into February 5.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama is said to be the favorite going into Saturday’s primary. Obama, who holds leads in the majority of polls in South Carolina, is anticipated to capture a great deal of support from the large African American population that makes up South Carolina. A win for Obama would help the Illinois Senator to stop the bleeding that he has suffered from back-to-back defeats at the hands of New York Senator Hillary Clinton in both New Hampshire and Nevada.
Clinton, who faces double-digit-deficits in many South Carolina polls, will need to surmount a last minute comeback the way she was able to in New Hampshire if she is to capture victory Saturday. Although Clinton trails in South Carolina, a Clinton defeat in the Palmetto State has the potential to be quickly overshadowed by a victory three days later in Florida. Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead in the majority of Florida polls and thus it is safe to assume that without a mishap Clinton’s Florida leads would only benefit from a win in South Carolina.
Obama, on the other hand, would seem to suffer greatly from a defeat in South Carolina. A third straight defeat by the New York Senator would leave Obama to have to scrap for a long-shot victory in Florida to stop the bleeding before the all-important February 5 contest.
The bottom line for Obama is that he must win in South Carolina or run the risk of being steam-rolled by Clinton in to and out of February 5.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama is said to be the favorite going into Saturday’s primary. Obama, who holds leads in the majority of polls in South Carolina, is anticipated to capture a great deal of support from the large African American population that makes up South Carolina. A win for Obama would help the Illinois Senator to stop the bleeding that he has suffered from back-to-back defeats at the hands of New York Senator Hillary Clinton in both New Hampshire and Nevada.
Clinton, who faces double-digit-deficits in many South Carolina polls, will need to surmount a last minute comeback the way she was able to in New Hampshire if she is to capture victory Saturday. Although Clinton trails in South Carolina, a Clinton defeat in the Palmetto State has the potential to be quickly overshadowed by a victory three days later in Florida. Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead in the majority of Florida polls and thus it is safe to assume that without a mishap Clinton’s Florida leads would only benefit from a win in South Carolina.
Obama, on the other hand, would seem to suffer greatly from a defeat in South Carolina. A third straight defeat by the New York Senator would leave Obama to have to scrap for a long-shot victory in Florida to stop the bleeding before the all-important February 5 contest.
The bottom line for Obama is that he must win in South Carolina or run the risk of being steam-rolled by Clinton in to and out of February 5.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Michigan Predictions: McCain Squeakes by Romney
In what would seem to be a very Romney friendly environment, Arizona Senator John McCain is set to narrowly defeat the former Massachusetts Governor in the state his father, George Romney, once served as a three term governor. Riding the wave of momentum that his New Hampshire victory breathed into his campaign, John McCain should defeat Romney by somewhere in the range of three to five points.
McCain’s likely victory in Michigan will put him at the front of the Republican field as the focus shifts to Saturday’s South Carolina Primary and beyond. In South Carolina both Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson will return to being viable competitors making the Michigan contest that much more important for either McCain or Romney to win.
Romney gained late momentum this week by his capitalizing on a McCain statement that the jobs that once made Michigan the center of the auto industry were gone and “were never coming back.” Romney pounced at this McCain statement and countered that America could overcome any adversity and that Michagan’s jobs could be reclaimed with the right leader.
But even withstanding this late Romney momentum, McCain should emerge victorious much in the same way he did last week in New Hampshire—by harnessing the strength of a 2000 victory in Michigan with his many endorsements by both newspapers and elected officials. This combined with a splash of the Arizona Senator's famous “straight talk” should give McCain a winning recipe in Michigan.
The Democratic contest in Michigan carries little weight due to the decision of the Democratic National Committee to strip Michigan of its convention delegates due to a decision of the Michigan State Legislature to move up their primary ahead of DNC’s regulated primary and caucus schedule. New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the only candidate to keep her name on the Michigan ballot and it is likely that because of this and her New Hampshire victory she will claim victory tonight. Both Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards are making last minute attempts to put their names on the ballot but it is unclear what if any impact a victory for any Democrat in Michigan will have nationally.
McCain’s likely victory in Michigan will put him at the front of the Republican field as the focus shifts to Saturday’s South Carolina Primary and beyond. In South Carolina both Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson will return to being viable competitors making the Michigan contest that much more important for either McCain or Romney to win.
Romney gained late momentum this week by his capitalizing on a McCain statement that the jobs that once made Michigan the center of the auto industry were gone and “were never coming back.” Romney pounced at this McCain statement and countered that America could overcome any adversity and that Michagan’s jobs could be reclaimed with the right leader.
But even withstanding this late Romney momentum, McCain should emerge victorious much in the same way he did last week in New Hampshire—by harnessing the strength of a 2000 victory in Michigan with his many endorsements by both newspapers and elected officials. This combined with a splash of the Arizona Senator's famous “straight talk” should give McCain a winning recipe in Michigan.
The Democratic contest in Michigan carries little weight due to the decision of the Democratic National Committee to strip Michigan of its convention delegates due to a decision of the Michigan State Legislature to move up their primary ahead of DNC’s regulated primary and caucus schedule. New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the only candidate to keep her name on the Michigan ballot and it is likely that because of this and her New Hampshire victory she will claim victory tonight. Both Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards are making last minute attempts to put their names on the ballot but it is unclear what if any impact a victory for any Democrat in Michigan will have nationally.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
The Mac is Back
Returning to the exact same spot he occupied eight years ago, Arizona Senator John McCain claimed victory in last night’s “first in the nation” New Hampshire Primary. Relying heavily on his “straight talk” and ability to connect with the last-minute voters in the Granite State, McCain catapulted his campaign towards the top of the Republican field with 37% of the vote verses former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 32%.
Addressing a crowded ballroom of supporters, McCain congratulated all candidates both Republican and Democrat as well as their supporters. “You stood up for what you believe in” McCain said “and I commend you for that.”
McCain now joins Romney and Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as those with victories so far in 2008 and sets up what will be a hotly contested January and February on the Republican side. Michigan will be the next stop for the Republicans and there McCain and Huckabee are battling for first and Romney is third in the state where his father, George Romney, served as a three-time governor.
But as for Tuesday the night was McCain’s and the 71-year-old will now have to take the momentum he was unsuccessful in harnessing from his 2000 victory in New Hampshire and direct it towards future success in 2008.
Addressing a crowded ballroom of supporters, McCain congratulated all candidates both Republican and Democrat as well as their supporters. “You stood up for what you believe in” McCain said “and I commend you for that.”
McCain now joins Romney and Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as those with victories so far in 2008 and sets up what will be a hotly contested January and February on the Republican side. Michigan will be the next stop for the Republicans and there McCain and Huckabee are battling for first and Romney is third in the state where his father, George Romney, served as a three-time governor.
But as for Tuesday the night was McCain’s and the 71-year-old will now have to take the momentum he was unsuccessful in harnessing from his 2000 victory in New Hampshire and direct it towards future success in 2008.
Heart Tops Change in New Hampshire
In one of the bigger political upsets in recent memory, Hillary Clinton, facing predictions of a defeat that some predicted would reach double-digits and cripple her 2008 chances, soared back to the top of the Democratic standings last night with a hard-fought victory over Illinois Senator Barack Obama. The Clinton victory, 40%-36%, over Obama breathed necessary life into the New York senator’s campaign and allows her to remain in a neck-and-neck battle with Obama for her party’s nomination.
Brandishing herself as the candidate with “heart,” Clinton carved her way to victory beginning with a Saturday night debate performance that saw her alternate between a candidate willing to attack those labeling her as the “status quo” and one willing to admit somewhat jokingly that her feelings were hurt when she was labeled as unlikable. This performance combined with a Monday speech that saw Clinton’s emotions bring her to the brink of tears seemed to be the fuel that energized Clinton to victory in New Hampshire.
Clinton is likely to continue championing herself as the candidate with “heart” while Obama continues to define himself as the candidate most willing to embrace “change.” The emails each candidate sent today reflect these themes with Clinton’s subject of “thank you from the bottom of my heart” and Obama’s attempting to emphasize the difficulty in creating change by stating “we knew this would be hard.”
Finishing in his familiar third place position, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards lagged far behind Clinton and Obama with only 17% of the Granite State electorate. Vowing to stay in the race, Edwards enthusiastically told supporters “we’re in this until the convention.”
Not withstanding next week’s Michigan Primary, The focus of the Democrats seems to have shifted towards the January 19 Nevada Primary and the South Carolina Primary to be held one week later. Michigan is caught in a battle with the Democratic National Committee over deciding to move their primary forward and ahead of traditional front-of-the-line deciders such as South Carolina. Because of this, the DNC is threatening to strip Michigan of some of its convention delegates. This threat is keeping most of the Democrats public attention away from Michigan.
Brandishing herself as the candidate with “heart,” Clinton carved her way to victory beginning with a Saturday night debate performance that saw her alternate between a candidate willing to attack those labeling her as the “status quo” and one willing to admit somewhat jokingly that her feelings were hurt when she was labeled as unlikable. This performance combined with a Monday speech that saw Clinton’s emotions bring her to the brink of tears seemed to be the fuel that energized Clinton to victory in New Hampshire.
Clinton is likely to continue championing herself as the candidate with “heart” while Obama continues to define himself as the candidate most willing to embrace “change.” The emails each candidate sent today reflect these themes with Clinton’s subject of “thank you from the bottom of my heart” and Obama’s attempting to emphasize the difficulty in creating change by stating “we knew this would be hard.”
Finishing in his familiar third place position, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards lagged far behind Clinton and Obama with only 17% of the Granite State electorate. Vowing to stay in the race, Edwards enthusiastically told supporters “we’re in this until the convention.”
Not withstanding next week’s Michigan Primary, The focus of the Democrats seems to have shifted towards the January 19 Nevada Primary and the South Carolina Primary to be held one week later. Michigan is caught in a battle with the Democratic National Committee over deciding to move their primary forward and ahead of traditional front-of-the-line deciders such as South Carolina. Because of this, the DNC is threatening to strip Michigan of some of its convention delegates. This threat is keeping most of the Democrats public attention away from Michigan.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Food for Thought: Part I
I have always marveled at the power of quotes. Quotes have always had the ability to help me to either open my thinking into a new way of looking at the situation or conversely sharpen previously held beliefs with a new perspective.
With this in mind, I launch the first in an occasional series of quotes that will follow with questions that relate to the 2008 election and beyond.
”My illness helped me to see that what was missing in society is what was missing in me: a little heart, a lot of brotherhood. The ’80’s were about acquiring — acquiring wealth, power, prestige. I know. I acquired more wealth, power, and prestige than most. But you can acquire all you want and still feel empty. What power wouldn’t I trade for a little more time with my family? What price wouldn’t I pay for an evening with friends? It took a deadly illness to put me eye to eye with that truth, but it is a truth that the country, caught up in its ruthless ambitions and moral decay, can learn on my dime. I don’t know who will lead us through the ’90s, but they must be made to speak to this spiritual vacuum at the heart of American society, this tumor of the soul.” Lee Atwater, 1991.
Today brings with it the “first in the nation” New Hampshire primary that is likely to have the single greatest impact that any event has had yet so far in the 2008 election cycle. And while it is unlikely that anyone reading this will have the opportunity to vote in New Hampshire nor the time to campaign for a candidate before the polls close tonight, we will each have the opportunity to make our mark in this election before it is all said and done.
Each generation brings with it unique challenges and opportunities that will require genuine leadership in order to face the former and make the most of the latter. While this is neither the time nor place for a specific endorsement, it is always timely for each of us to give thought to what exactly we hope to find in our next president.
I propose to each of you as a frame for such thought the above quote by former Republican and Reagan and Bush era strategist, Lee Atwater. Atwater who nearing death converted to Catholicism gave this quote from his deathbed. Atwater’s main assertion in the quote is that as the 1990’s began there was a “spiritual vacuum” in America.
Whether you agree with Atwater’s assertion or not, two questions can be used by any of us in relation to this quote to magnify who exactly we feel will bring the most to the position of commander and chief. Atwater asserts that the 1980’s were about “acquiring” and the 1990’s were about curing America’s “spiritual vacuum.” Before you decide which candidate you will vote for, I recommend you define exactly what it is that you believe our nation faces as its greatest problem in 2008. Once you have determined that singular problem then decide which candidate you feel is best to address this.
I extend to you the further question of which candidate may have the ability to envision the problem before it happens instead of Atwater’s late realization. And which candidate’s experience makes them best positioned to not only envision this problem but communicate it to the public and execute its solution.
It is my hope and also my opinion that the completion of these exercises will go a long way in making your decision in 2008.
With this in mind, I launch the first in an occasional series of quotes that will follow with questions that relate to the 2008 election and beyond.
”My illness helped me to see that what was missing in society is what was missing in me: a little heart, a lot of brotherhood. The ’80’s were about acquiring — acquiring wealth, power, prestige. I know. I acquired more wealth, power, and prestige than most. But you can acquire all you want and still feel empty. What power wouldn’t I trade for a little more time with my family? What price wouldn’t I pay for an evening with friends? It took a deadly illness to put me eye to eye with that truth, but it is a truth that the country, caught up in its ruthless ambitions and moral decay, can learn on my dime. I don’t know who will lead us through the ’90s, but they must be made to speak to this spiritual vacuum at the heart of American society, this tumor of the soul.” Lee Atwater, 1991.
Today brings with it the “first in the nation” New Hampshire primary that is likely to have the single greatest impact that any event has had yet so far in the 2008 election cycle. And while it is unlikely that anyone reading this will have the opportunity to vote in New Hampshire nor the time to campaign for a candidate before the polls close tonight, we will each have the opportunity to make our mark in this election before it is all said and done.
Each generation brings with it unique challenges and opportunities that will require genuine leadership in order to face the former and make the most of the latter. While this is neither the time nor place for a specific endorsement, it is always timely for each of us to give thought to what exactly we hope to find in our next president.
I propose to each of you as a frame for such thought the above quote by former Republican and Reagan and Bush era strategist, Lee Atwater. Atwater who nearing death converted to Catholicism gave this quote from his deathbed. Atwater’s main assertion in the quote is that as the 1990’s began there was a “spiritual vacuum” in America.
Whether you agree with Atwater’s assertion or not, two questions can be used by any of us in relation to this quote to magnify who exactly we feel will bring the most to the position of commander and chief. Atwater asserts that the 1980’s were about “acquiring” and the 1990’s were about curing America’s “spiritual vacuum.” Before you decide which candidate you will vote for, I recommend you define exactly what it is that you believe our nation faces as its greatest problem in 2008. Once you have determined that singular problem then decide which candidate you feel is best to address this.
I extend to you the further question of which candidate may have the ability to envision the problem before it happens instead of Atwater’s late realization. And which candidate’s experience makes them best positioned to not only envision this problem but communicate it to the public and execute its solution.
It is my hope and also my opinion that the completion of these exercises will go a long way in making your decision in 2008.
Monday, January 7, 2008
New Hampshire Predictions: Ringing in Both the New and the Old in the Granite State
The wave of momentum Barack Obama road out of Iowa on shows no signs of stopping. Even with a less-than-impressive performance in Saturday’s ABC-Facebook sponsored debate, Obama continues to excite and thrill audiences alike with his call for change and refusal to get mixed up in political wrangling. This rising swell of popularity will push Obama to a double-digit victory over Clinton that could swell to as much as fifteen points in New Hampshire's "first in the nation" primary.
While it is always foolish to count a Clinton out, especially in New Hampshire the place Bill was labeled “the comeback kid,” Obama’s momentum seems too strong for Hillary and will likely leave her like her husband Bill was in 1992, in second place.
With a defeat, Clinton will be forced to seriously reassess her fledgling campaign and begin to scrap together a plan to remain viable. She will likely look past South Carolina where the overwhelming number of black voters combined with Obama’s ever-growing serge of popularity will make him the clear front-runner there. Clinton’s best and perhaps last hope may lie in the one-two-combination of Florida’s January 29 primary followed by the all-important Super Tuesday primaries of February 5.
John Edwards continues to hang around like that one last person refusing to leave your holiday party. Clearly Edwards was invited by his 2004 performance and his early fundraising but his welcome and more so his chances of victory grow less and less by the minute. Edwards’s renewed energy has been apparent in the minutes immediately following Iowa straight on through his weekend appearances in New Hampshire; however, after finishing seven points off the lead in Iowa look for that margin to at least double in New Hampshire.
On the Republican side look for Arizona Senator John McCain to claim his first victory of 2008 by a margin of somewhere in the range of five to ten points. McCain’s likely victory will position himself and Huckabee as the two front-runners in the national race and further serve to push Mitt Romney farther down the political ladder. The margin of McCain’s victory and whether Huckabee can crack the top three in New Hampshire should tell us a lot as the campaign shifts its focus south towards South Carolina.
Mitt Romney, barring a last minute catastrophe, should claim the silver medal in the Granite state. A second place finish for Romney in New Hampshire does not do much to reenergize Romney’s sinking campaign but if he is to let Huckabee slip ahead of him in New Hampshire Romney may never find his name ahead of Huckabee’s for the duration of the race.
Governor Mike Huckabee can’t really put too much faith in a victory in New Hampshire; however, the position he finishes in and the margin of victory between him and those ahead of him may give him some added muscle heading to South Carolina. Second place should be Huckabee’s goal and if he’s left with the silver medal Huckabee should consider himself a winner.
In terms of other GOP hopefuls, Mayor Rudy Giuliani would consider it a success for him to finish in the top four in New Hampshire. Giuliani’s front-runner status has been stripped from him and he’s putting all of his stock in a Nixon-like “secret plan” to pile up victories in late January and early February.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson much like his southern, ex-senator, Democratic, counter-part, John Edwards remains in the race hoping for something or someone to break allowing him once again to climb a top the polls. A third place finish in Iowa put a pulse back in Thomson’s campaign; however, it still is in need of constant monitoring to see when it might give its last breath. A victory for Thompson would find himself on the medal stand in New Hampshire claiming one of the top three spots. If Thompson was to finish fifth or worse he may need to ready once again his withdrawal speech and endorsement of John McCain.
While it is always foolish to count a Clinton out, especially in New Hampshire the place Bill was labeled “the comeback kid,” Obama’s momentum seems too strong for Hillary and will likely leave her like her husband Bill was in 1992, in second place.
With a defeat, Clinton will be forced to seriously reassess her fledgling campaign and begin to scrap together a plan to remain viable. She will likely look past South Carolina where the overwhelming number of black voters combined with Obama’s ever-growing serge of popularity will make him the clear front-runner there. Clinton’s best and perhaps last hope may lie in the one-two-combination of Florida’s January 29 primary followed by the all-important Super Tuesday primaries of February 5.
John Edwards continues to hang around like that one last person refusing to leave your holiday party. Clearly Edwards was invited by his 2004 performance and his early fundraising but his welcome and more so his chances of victory grow less and less by the minute. Edwards’s renewed energy has been apparent in the minutes immediately following Iowa straight on through his weekend appearances in New Hampshire; however, after finishing seven points off the lead in Iowa look for that margin to at least double in New Hampshire.
On the Republican side look for Arizona Senator John McCain to claim his first victory of 2008 by a margin of somewhere in the range of five to ten points. McCain’s likely victory will position himself and Huckabee as the two front-runners in the national race and further serve to push Mitt Romney farther down the political ladder. The margin of McCain’s victory and whether Huckabee can crack the top three in New Hampshire should tell us a lot as the campaign shifts its focus south towards South Carolina.
Mitt Romney, barring a last minute catastrophe, should claim the silver medal in the Granite state. A second place finish for Romney in New Hampshire does not do much to reenergize Romney’s sinking campaign but if he is to let Huckabee slip ahead of him in New Hampshire Romney may never find his name ahead of Huckabee’s for the duration of the race.
Governor Mike Huckabee can’t really put too much faith in a victory in New Hampshire; however, the position he finishes in and the margin of victory between him and those ahead of him may give him some added muscle heading to South Carolina. Second place should be Huckabee’s goal and if he’s left with the silver medal Huckabee should consider himself a winner.
In terms of other GOP hopefuls, Mayor Rudy Giuliani would consider it a success for him to finish in the top four in New Hampshire. Giuliani’s front-runner status has been stripped from him and he’s putting all of his stock in a Nixon-like “secret plan” to pile up victories in late January and early February.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson much like his southern, ex-senator, Democratic, counter-part, John Edwards remains in the race hoping for something or someone to break allowing him once again to climb a top the polls. A third place finish in Iowa put a pulse back in Thomson’s campaign; however, it still is in need of constant monitoring to see when it might give its last breath. A victory for Thompson would find himself on the medal stand in New Hampshire claiming one of the top three spots. If Thompson was to finish fifth or worse he may need to ready once again his withdrawal speech and endorsement of John McCain.
The Republican Rematch in New Hampshire
For the second time in two nights, Republican presidential hopefuls took the stage last night in New Hampshire. The tone of last night’s debate was equally aggressive, however, its focus Sunday shifted away from one that seemed to exclusively focus on diminishing the hopes of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a tag team effort towards a one-for-all and all-for-one last pitch to woo undecided voters.
Mitt Romney, while not escaping completely the attacks of his competition, seemed more ready Sunday to fight back and handle the swipes of his competitors. Sticking to his belief that the campaign should rest on issues and not personal attacks, Romney is now trying to embrace Iowa’s singular call for change by brandishing himself as the Washington outsider most likely to implement change. With the polls reflecting a gain by Senator John McCain over the weekend, Romney must do all he can between now and the close of polls Tuesday to convince the Granite state electorate he is their candidate.
Whereas Saturday night’s debate left Romney seeming helpless against the bullying attacks of his competition, Sunday allowed him to display his trademark cool and if not gain momentum going into Tuesday hopefully stop the bleeding that his fledgling campaign has displayed ever since the days leading up to Iowa.
Sunday’s Fox News debate is unlikely to have as much impact on New Hampshire voters as the previous night’s ABC and Facebook sponsored debate was for a few reasons. First, the casual voter wanting to invest their time wisely would have likely opted to tune in for Saturday’s Republican and Democratic double-header that saw each set of candidates debate for one and one half hour intervals one after the other. Secondly, the Sunday news cycle is a brisk one this time of year with the networks going head-to-head with their talk shows including NBC’s Meet the Press, ABC’s This Week, and CBS’s Face the Nation. Saturday’s debate was discussed at length in all of these talk shows and as a result of its occurring at night Fox’s debate will be left for the less fertile political grounds of ABC’s Good Morning America or NBC’s Today Show.
Finally, Fox News is unlikely to draw in as many independent voters as ABC was likely to have and it might be just this undecided, independent, portion of the electorate that may swing New Hampshire.
What this means is that Romney’s improved Sunday debate performance may not have the ability to overcome the damage that was done to him Saturday night. Senator John McCain is leading in most New Hampshire polls and Governor Mike Huckabee is even cutting into Romney’s numbers as Huckabee tries to make a long-shot attempt at second or third place in New Hampshire. Even withstanding Romney’s little discussed victory in Saturday’s Wyoming Caucus he must either win or have a strong, close, second place finish in New Hampshire to have the momentum to have any success in later states.
All the signs point against a Romney victory Tuesday; it is now up to him to do what he can between now and Tuesday night to prove the pundits wrong.
Mitt Romney, while not escaping completely the attacks of his competition, seemed more ready Sunday to fight back and handle the swipes of his competitors. Sticking to his belief that the campaign should rest on issues and not personal attacks, Romney is now trying to embrace Iowa’s singular call for change by brandishing himself as the Washington outsider most likely to implement change. With the polls reflecting a gain by Senator John McCain over the weekend, Romney must do all he can between now and the close of polls Tuesday to convince the Granite state electorate he is their candidate.
Whereas Saturday night’s debate left Romney seeming helpless against the bullying attacks of his competition, Sunday allowed him to display his trademark cool and if not gain momentum going into Tuesday hopefully stop the bleeding that his fledgling campaign has displayed ever since the days leading up to Iowa.
Sunday’s Fox News debate is unlikely to have as much impact on New Hampshire voters as the previous night’s ABC and Facebook sponsored debate was for a few reasons. First, the casual voter wanting to invest their time wisely would have likely opted to tune in for Saturday’s Republican and Democratic double-header that saw each set of candidates debate for one and one half hour intervals one after the other. Secondly, the Sunday news cycle is a brisk one this time of year with the networks going head-to-head with their talk shows including NBC’s Meet the Press, ABC’s This Week, and CBS’s Face the Nation. Saturday’s debate was discussed at length in all of these talk shows and as a result of its occurring at night Fox’s debate will be left for the less fertile political grounds of ABC’s Good Morning America or NBC’s Today Show.
Finally, Fox News is unlikely to draw in as many independent voters as ABC was likely to have and it might be just this undecided, independent, portion of the electorate that may swing New Hampshire.
What this means is that Romney’s improved Sunday debate performance may not have the ability to overcome the damage that was done to him Saturday night. Senator John McCain is leading in most New Hampshire polls and Governor Mike Huckabee is even cutting into Romney’s numbers as Huckabee tries to make a long-shot attempt at second or third place in New Hampshire. Even withstanding Romney’s little discussed victory in Saturday’s Wyoming Caucus he must either win or have a strong, close, second place finish in New Hampshire to have the momentum to have any success in later states.
All the signs point against a Romney victory Tuesday; it is now up to him to do what he can between now and Tuesday night to prove the pundits wrong.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
A Double Date in New Hampshire
For anyone brave enough to sit through nearly four hours of debate coverage on ABC Saturday night, I commend you. For those who didn’t, here are some thoughts concerning both the Republican and Democratic debates.
Republicans:
The candidate clearly in the cross hairs of every Republican this night was former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Mitt’s trademark cool was tested time and time again and by the end of the night Romney was clearly damaged. Relying on a plea to his fellow Republicans to stay on the issues, Romney tried to deflect unsuccessfully other GOP hopeful’s assaults towards his tendency to change his mind on issues. Romney’s lead in New Hampshire has evaporated and now he is tied or losing to Arizona Senator John McCain in most polls. Saturday did nothing to stop the bleeding for Romney.
Governor Mike Huckabee and Senator John McCain were most successful in their swipes at Romney. The tag team of Huckabee and McCain tried to portray Romney as the candidate of change; however, unfortunately for Romney change referred more to flip-flopping than visionary ideas.
While the clearest results of the Republican debate was a weakening of Romney’s floundering campaign, both McCain and Huckabee came out with the most gained from Saturday. McCain’s gains are likely to help him more in the short term as he is locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Romney for the top spot in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
Former Senator Fred Thompson was able to score points throughout the debate but more so in terms of the contrasts he drew from Congressman Ron Paul, the radical in the Republican grouping, than from any actual accomplishments himself. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani maintained his focus on continuing to be tough on terror and pro offense against radical Islam; however, his decision to largely skip the early primaries and focus on later states, namely Florida’s January 29 primary, continue to make his presence more that of a spectator than a competitor.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton, dictating the pace more than any other candidate, seems to have won Saturday’s debate; however, more in the form of a split decision than a knock out. Clinton was successful in answering Senator Obama and Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards claims that they were best to lead because of their focus on change by countering that a resume of change trumps mere calls for change.
Constantly recalling her 35-years of experience in public service, Clinton tried to draw the contrast between herself, Obama, and Edwards as that of those willing to talk and those willing to roll up their sleeves and work. While this tactic was successful and this night made Clinton the victor, her debate performance is unlikely to single-handedly bring her victory on Tuesday.
What has made Obama successful, a strong personal story and refusal to get mixed up in political bickering, is what likely lost Obama Saturday’s debate. And while a refusal to mix it up may loose points on a debate scorecard, it has not damaged in the least bit the wave of momentum that Obama road into and out of Iowa.
John Edwards, returning time and time again to his passionate cry for change, finds his populist message muffled by both Clinton and Obama. On this night, Edwards was clearly the most energetic of the four candidates, however, his message of change has been added late in his political career and never packs as much punch as Obama’s does. Edwards who trails Clinton and Obama by more than ten points in all New Hampshire polls is hoping for an Obama victory in New Hampshire and a position as chief competition for Obama going into the January 15 South Carolina primary.
Republicans:
The candidate clearly in the cross hairs of every Republican this night was former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Mitt’s trademark cool was tested time and time again and by the end of the night Romney was clearly damaged. Relying on a plea to his fellow Republicans to stay on the issues, Romney tried to deflect unsuccessfully other GOP hopeful’s assaults towards his tendency to change his mind on issues. Romney’s lead in New Hampshire has evaporated and now he is tied or losing to Arizona Senator John McCain in most polls. Saturday did nothing to stop the bleeding for Romney.
Governor Mike Huckabee and Senator John McCain were most successful in their swipes at Romney. The tag team of Huckabee and McCain tried to portray Romney as the candidate of change; however, unfortunately for Romney change referred more to flip-flopping than visionary ideas.
While the clearest results of the Republican debate was a weakening of Romney’s floundering campaign, both McCain and Huckabee came out with the most gained from Saturday. McCain’s gains are likely to help him more in the short term as he is locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Romney for the top spot in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
Former Senator Fred Thompson was able to score points throughout the debate but more so in terms of the contrasts he drew from Congressman Ron Paul, the radical in the Republican grouping, than from any actual accomplishments himself. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani maintained his focus on continuing to be tough on terror and pro offense against radical Islam; however, his decision to largely skip the early primaries and focus on later states, namely Florida’s January 29 primary, continue to make his presence more that of a spectator than a competitor.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton, dictating the pace more than any other candidate, seems to have won Saturday’s debate; however, more in the form of a split decision than a knock out. Clinton was successful in answering Senator Obama and Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards claims that they were best to lead because of their focus on change by countering that a resume of change trumps mere calls for change.
Constantly recalling her 35-years of experience in public service, Clinton tried to draw the contrast between herself, Obama, and Edwards as that of those willing to talk and those willing to roll up their sleeves and work. While this tactic was successful and this night made Clinton the victor, her debate performance is unlikely to single-handedly bring her victory on Tuesday.
What has made Obama successful, a strong personal story and refusal to get mixed up in political bickering, is what likely lost Obama Saturday’s debate. And while a refusal to mix it up may loose points on a debate scorecard, it has not damaged in the least bit the wave of momentum that Obama road into and out of Iowa.
John Edwards, returning time and time again to his passionate cry for change, finds his populist message muffled by both Clinton and Obama. On this night, Edwards was clearly the most energetic of the four candidates, however, his message of change has been added late in his political career and never packs as much punch as Obama’s does. Edwards who trails Clinton and Obama by more than ten points in all New Hampshire polls is hoping for an Obama victory in New Hampshire and a position as chief competition for Obama going into the January 15 South Carolina primary.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Iowa and beyond
Well we are nearly twelve hours removed from what was a very close and exciting Iowa Caucus. After I was able to digest and begin to understand the format of a caucus, I found the night’s activities to be very interesting, however, the impact of Iowa moving forward is still unclear.
Here is my quick list of “winners” and “losers” from Iowa:
Winners:
Gov. Mike Huckabee – The governor had to win Iowa to remain viable and this is exactly what he did. The margin, roughly ten points, was even more impressive than the victory itself. Huckabee’s victory does not make him the national front-runner for his party’s nomination; however, without Iowa Huckaby was done.
Sen. Barack Obama – Barack did not have to win Iowa in order to stay in the race, however, his victory positions him with a slight edge as front-runner for his party’s nomination. Barack’s margin of victory, nearly seven points over Edwards and Clinton, should serve him well as he moves forward and tries to cut into and hopefully overcome Clinton’s approximately six point lead in the Granite State.
Sen. Fred Thompson – Thursday afternoon was full of rumors of Thompson’s impending withdrawal from the race that was supposedly to be followed by an endorsement of Sen. John McCain. With a third place finish, Thompson can put these plans on hold and he should remain viable at least through South Carolina.
Losers:
Sen. John Edwards – Iowa will serve as the effective death blow to Edwards’s chances in 2008. Edwards plan this whole cycle was to win in Iowa and use the momentum from this to win later contests. Edwards has enough money to stay in the contest but his chances of becoming the Democrat’s nominee are over.
Gov. Mitt Romney – Romney did not have to win Iowa but he did have to split in Iowa and New Hampshire. Last night’s defeat forces Romney to now win New Hampshire or run the risk of becoming irrelevant. With John McCain’s growing momentum in New Hampshire this will be no easy task.
Sen. Hillary Clinton – Hillary did not have to win Iowa, however, it was her hope to place second. A third place finish may take momentum away from Clinton and make the defense of her dwindling lead in New Hampshire even more difficult.
Here is my quick list of “winners” and “losers” from Iowa:
Winners:
Gov. Mike Huckabee – The governor had to win Iowa to remain viable and this is exactly what he did. The margin, roughly ten points, was even more impressive than the victory itself. Huckabee’s victory does not make him the national front-runner for his party’s nomination; however, without Iowa Huckaby was done.
Sen. Barack Obama – Barack did not have to win Iowa in order to stay in the race, however, his victory positions him with a slight edge as front-runner for his party’s nomination. Barack’s margin of victory, nearly seven points over Edwards and Clinton, should serve him well as he moves forward and tries to cut into and hopefully overcome Clinton’s approximately six point lead in the Granite State.
Sen. Fred Thompson – Thursday afternoon was full of rumors of Thompson’s impending withdrawal from the race that was supposedly to be followed by an endorsement of Sen. John McCain. With a third place finish, Thompson can put these plans on hold and he should remain viable at least through South Carolina.
Losers:
Sen. John Edwards – Iowa will serve as the effective death blow to Edwards’s chances in 2008. Edwards plan this whole cycle was to win in Iowa and use the momentum from this to win later contests. Edwards has enough money to stay in the contest but his chances of becoming the Democrat’s nominee are over.
Gov. Mitt Romney – Romney did not have to win Iowa but he did have to split in Iowa and New Hampshire. Last night’s defeat forces Romney to now win New Hampshire or run the risk of becoming irrelevant. With John McCain’s growing momentum in New Hampshire this will be no easy task.
Sen. Hillary Clinton – Hillary did not have to win Iowa, however, it was her hope to place second. A third place finish may take momentum away from Clinton and make the defense of her dwindling lead in New Hampshire even more difficult.
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