Michigan Predictions: McCain Squeakes by Romney

In what would seem to be a very Romney friendly environment, Arizona Senator John McCain is set to narrowly defeat the former Massachusetts Governor in the state his father, George Romney, once served as a three term governor. Riding the wave of momentum that his New Hampshire victory breathed into his campaign, John McCain should defeat Romney by somewhere in the range of three to five points.

McCain’s likely victory in Michigan will put him at the front of the Republican field as the focus shifts to Saturday’s South Carolina Primary and beyond. In South Carolina both Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson will return to being viable competitors making the Michigan contest that much more important for either McCain or Romney to win.

Romney gained late momentum this week by his capitalizing on a McCain statement that the jobs that once made Michigan the center of the auto industry were gone and “were never coming back.” Romney pounced at this McCain statement and countered that America could overcome any adversity and that Michagan’s jobs could be reclaimed with the right leader.

But even withstanding this late Romney momentum, McCain should emerge victorious much in the same way he did last week in New Hampshire—by harnessing the strength of a 2000 victory in Michigan with his many endorsements by both newspapers and elected officials. This combined with a splash of the Arizona Senator's famous “straight talk” should give McCain a winning recipe in Michigan.

The Democratic contest in Michigan carries little weight due to the decision of the Democratic National Committee to strip Michigan of its convention delegates due to a decision of the Michigan State Legislature to move up their primary ahead of DNC’s regulated primary and caucus schedule. New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the only candidate to keep her name on the Michigan ballot and it is likely that because of this and her New Hampshire victory she will claim victory tonight. Both Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards are making last minute attempts to put their names on the ballot but it is unclear what if any impact a victory for any Democrat in Michigan will have nationally.