Vote No on Santana

The discussions between the Red Sox and Minnesota Twins concerning Johan Santana are said to continue; however, a resolution does not seem imminent. The Red Sox seem to be staying strong with their two packages—one containing Jacoby Elsberry and the other John Lester.

The new wrinkle in the Santana talks have the chances of the Yankees landing the Twin’s ace diminishing and have the New York Mets joining the Red Sox as front-runners for Santana’s services.
The introduction of the Mets into the Santana talks may be the most beneficial thing for Red Sox fans to come out of the talks since their introduction over a month ago. Red Sox fans should be cheering for Santana to be wearing a Mets uniform for two main reasons.

The first reason seems to be shared by both Red Sox management as well as their fans. This is that they are both head-over-heels in love with their seemingly endless array of young talent. Names like Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Buchholz keep fans at the edge of their seat with their fresh faces and boundless energy while at the same time bringing smiles to the faces of management with their rookie minimum salaries. With Theo Epstein’s high success rate of placing prospects into careers as productive major leaguers, it would seem difficult to export four or more bargain-basement-priced prospects for Santana who is said to command a seven year contract for $20 million annually.

What the Mets introduction into the Santana talks allows the Red Sox to do is maintain a poker face at the trade table while keeping their fingers crossed under it that Santana quickly becomes a Met. The Red Sox’s best interest is for the possibility of Santana wearing a Yankees uniform to be eliminated. What a Twins-Mets trade would do is move Santana to a more permanent home in Queens as a Met and not allow for a high stakes game of poker to play out during the trade deadline in July.

It is the belief here that the Red Sox interest in Santana has always lie more in keeping him out of pin stripes and thus risk swinging the edge in the A.L. East south to the Bronx than it ever was in having him in a Red Sox uniform. The trade doesn’t make sense for a couple of reasons-one that Santana’s perceived demands for a seven year contract makes it harder and harder for them to stand strong during negotiations for free agents after handing out a six year $100 million plus contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka. The company line had always been four year contracts or less for high priced free agents and signing Santana to a potential seven year $140 million contract would likely hurt the Red Sox negotiating position in the future. Additionally, a seven year contract for Santana would leave the Red Sox on the hook for $20 million a year until Santana is 35 years old while on the other hand Matsuzaka’s contract expires upon him reaching the age of 32.

But in terms of the on-going cold war struggle between the Red Sox and Yankees, one team cannot show weakness publicly. The Red Sox have postured long enough in the Santana talks and they now have the perfect out—an interested party not wearing pin stripes. Furthermore, a Red Sox withdrawal from trade talks allows them to claim that they couldn’t stomach the cost of Santana and that they want to keep building their winning tradition from within. Both serve to strengthen the Red Sox image and distance themselves from moving ever closer to the spend thrift Yankees.

Epstein’s genius has always derived from his ability to receive equal if not superior returns on his investments whether they are via trade or through free agency. The risk of forfeiting three or four low cost, high yield, prospects in return for the services of a pitcher who you will have to pay $20 million up until his 35th birthday does not seem like one Epstein should or hopefully will make.